Got it! So you’re saying that the last choice is between 233 or 0 and the last guy has a probably x of pulling the lever and killing everyone (therefore a (1-x) probability of killing nobody).
So, even if it’s guaranteed that nobody along the way pulls the lever (the best case scenario if we want 0 dead), the expected value at the last branch is x · 233 + (1-x) · 0. And the only way this is less than 1 is if x < 1 / 233, which is an absurdly tiny probability.
If we also consider the intermediary probabilities, this already tiny probability threshold of 1 / 233 of killing nobody gets SMALLER because we’re allowing more chances for killing way more than 1 person along the way.
The intermediary probabilities make it even worse, yes! But the overall probability is already ridiculously tiny, so I don’t think it changes the conclusion by a lot.
Got it! So you’re saying that the last choice is between 233 or 0 and the last guy has a probably x of pulling the lever and killing everyone (therefore a (1-x) probability of killing nobody).
So, even if it’s guaranteed that nobody along the way pulls the lever (the best case scenario if we want 0 dead), the expected value at the last branch is x · 233 + (1-x) · 0. And the only way this is less than 1 is if x < 1 / 233, which is an absurdly tiny probability.
If we also consider the intermediary probabilities, this already tiny probability threshold of 1 / 233 of killing nobody gets SMALLER because we’re allowing more chances for killing way more than 1 person along the way.
That’s exactly right, you got it!
The intermediary probabilities make it even worse, yes! But the overall probability is already ridiculously tiny, so I don’t think it changes the conclusion by a lot.