I’ll fall back on my default null hypotheses here.
The effect is probably minimal if it exists at all. If there is any effect, it is probably negligible if you are doing the big things right. Your body is smart, and responds to changes in its environment with an eye towards improved survival and fitness. It is not a simple CICO machine.

you could hypothesize and these rambling thought experiments…or you could watch the video, and see there are several studies saying the effect exists and isn’t minimal

I thought this was interesting, TLDW is that exercising in cold (water/environment) increases appetite after, so it’s not great for a person that’s trying to lose weight

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dV88178zjDQ