• 0 Posts
  • 13 Comments
Joined 2 years ago
cake
Cake day: June 1st, 2023

help-circle

  • That’s definitely possible, but unlikely. And, with a long enough timeline to retirement, you’d still come out ahead if your asset allocation was correct.

    In the Great Depression, the market recovered to its 1929 peak in under 30 years. So, theoretically, if we had another great depression right now, people under 35 or so would be OK even if they were 100% in equities. The older you are and more overleveraged toward equities, obviously the worse off you’d be. https://www.macrotrends.net/1319/dow-jones-100-year-historical-chart

    Assuming we will have another black swan event of the same magnitude as the Great Depression is a longshot. Could it happen? Yeah. Is it a safe bet to stake your retirement on? No.

    I am not a financial advisor, and this is not financial advice, but making drastic moves based on stock market fluctuations is generally not a good idea. What is a good idea is managing your risk exposure and diversifying your investment vehicles.


  • Assuming you have at least 10yrs to retirement, that isn’t necessarily a sensible move. Ok - so you’ve gotten out of equities to limit risk in the short-mid term. Great, you will lose less than if you were more exposed to equities.

    If you believe that the economy will recover, as it has every time a recession has hit, then you will need to get back into equities. That requires calling the bottom correctly. If you do not continue DCAing into equities as they fall and/or do not re-buy at less than you sold for, you will not benefit from the recovery. Essentially, you are solidifying your losses and potentially missing out on future gains - which can come at extremely unpredictable times.

    It makes more sense to ensure you’re at your target allocation, then DCA like you always should be doing all the way down. Then you are at your accepted risk level and get to benefit from the economic recovery - which will come eventually. If you dont need the money soon, the best thing you can do (historically speaking) is hold on to your investments and just keep investing.




  • Science is proof that 99.9% people who think that, if there was a knowledge-based magic system irl, then they’d learn it and be a mage are in denial.

    We legit have magic that you just have to learn & then can do all sorts of cool stuff, be it chemistry or computer science, and people pretty routinely do not give a shit about learning it themselves.



  • The first time I saw him with the kid, before the memes started, I literally said out loud to myself, “wtf is he using his kid as a human shield?” It was right after Super Mario Praxis dropped and that was my gut reaction.

    It’s possible he wants to seem like dad of the year, but lots of politicians have wanted that, and they don’t do bring your kid to work day every day. Idk. Maybe it’s a dual-purpose thing, but my money is primarily on human shield